Trust your gut instinct over spreadsheets. There are too many variables in the real world that you simply can't put into a spreadsheet. Spreadsheets spit out results from your inexact assumptions and give you a false sense of security. In most cases your heart and gut are still your best guide.
That's the hard part about sport: as men we haven't started to be in our prime but as athletes we are old people. I needed support. I lost trust and did stupid things.