Probability is expectation founded upon partial knowledge. A perfect acquaintance with all the circumstances affecting the occurrence of an event would change expectation into certainty and leave nether room nor demand for a theory of probabilities.
Every job leaves its residue a bit of extra knowledge a new skill-set.
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The foundation of our religion is a basis of fact – the fact of the birth ministry miracles death resurrection by the Evangelists as having actually occurred within their own personal knowledge.